JLPT N4・N5 Vocabulary – The difference between “たぶん” and “きっと”
Table of Contents
1. The difference between “たぶん” and “きっと”
2. たぶん
3. きっと
4. Let’s Compare
5. Summary
6. Quiz
7. Similar Articles
8. Comments
Q: Can “たぶん” and “きっと” be used interchangeably?
A: “たぶん” and “きっと” are both adverbs often used to express the speaker’s prediction or guess, similar to “〜だろう” or “〜と思う.”
However, they differ in how certain the speaker feels.
Therefore, in many cases, “たぶん” and “きっと” cannot simply be used interchangeably.
たぶん (JLPT N5)
[Meaning]
It is used when the speaker cannot say something for certain, but predicts that something will happen or that something is probably true.
[Examples]
明日はたぶん雨でしょう。
It will probably rain tomorrow.
A：明日は何するの？
B：たぶん家にいるよ。
A: What are you doing tomorrow?
B: I’ll probably stay home.
ゆみさんはたぶん来ないと思います。
I think Yumi probably won’t come.
A：これで大丈夫かな？
B：たぶん大丈夫だと思うよ。
A: Do you think this is okay?
B: I think it’s probably okay.
きっと (JLPT N4)
[Meaning]
It is used when the speaker strongly predicts that something will certainly happen.
[Examples]
明日はきっと雨です。
I’m sure it will rain tomorrow.
A：JLPTに受かるか心配だなあ。
B：たくさん勉強もしたしきっと大丈夫だよ！
A: I’m worried about whether I’ll pass the JLPT.
B: You studied a lot, so I’m sure you’ll be okay.
この店、おいしいからきっと気にいると思うよ。
This store has delicious food, so I’m sure you’ll like it.
彼はきっと成功しますよ。
I’m sure he will succeed.
Let’s Compare
“たぶん” and “きっと” both express a prediction or guess.
The difference is the speaker’s level of certainty.
When the speaker’s certainty is low, use “たぶん.”
When the speaker’s certainty is high, use “きっと.”
① たぶん：Low certainty
[Examples]
空がくもっているな。たぶん明日は雨かな。
The sky is cloudy. It might rain tomorrow.
⇒ The speaker only knows that the sky is cloudy, so their certainty is not very high.
A：山田くんはどこだろう。
B：かばんもないし、たぶん帰ったと思うよ。
A: Where is Yamada-kun?
B: His bag is gone, so I think he probably went home.
⇒ B does not know for sure whether Yamada-kun really went home.
B is guessing this because his bag is gone.
② きっと: High certainty
“きっと” is used when the speaker has some reason or basis for their prediction and thinks that something is likely to happen.
[Examples]
空がくもっているな。天気予報では雨と言っていたし、きっと明日は雨だろう。
The sky is cloudy. The weather forecast said it would rain, so I’m sure it will rain tomorrow.
⇒ The speaker knows not only that the sky is cloudy, but also that the weather forecast said it would rain.
Therefore, the speaker’s certainty is high.
A：山田くんはどこだろう。
B：もう5時半だね。いつも5時に帰るからきっと帰ったよ。
A: Where is Yamada-kun?
B: It’s already 5:30. He always leaves at 5, so I’m sure he went home.
⇒ B knows that Yamada-kun usually leaves at 5. Therefore, B’s certainty is high.
Special Uses of “きっと”
“きっと” has some uses that “たぶん” does not have.
① Expressing the speaker’s intention or determination
“きっと” is also used when the speaker strongly feels, “I will definitely do this.”
[Examples]
(わたしは) きっと成功してみせる。
I will definitely succeed.
きっと次はもっといい結果を出します。
I will definitely get better results next time.
This “きっと” does not express a prediction.
It expresses the speaker’s strong intention or determination.
② Expressing a strong wish or hope for the other person
“きっと” is also used when expressing a strong wish or hope toward the other person.
[Examples]
きっとまた会いましょう。
I’m sure we’ll meet again.
いつかきっと成功してください。応援しています。
I hope you succeed someday. I’m cheering for you.
This “きっと” expresses a strong wish or expectation toward the other person.
Summary
[たぶん]
- Used when the speaker does not have enough basis for their prediction and is not strongly certain.
- It has the nuance of “there is a possibility that this will happen, but I cannot say for sure.”
[きっと]
- Used when the speaker has some basis for their prediction and strongly thinks that something is likely to happen.
- It can also express the speaker’s strong intention or determination, or a strong wish or expectation toward the other person.
Quiz
Read the following sentence and choose the expression that fits the context from the options provided in the parentheses.
Click on the question to check the answer.
A. たぶん
このクッキー、たぶんおいしくないよ。
This cookie probably doesn’t taste good.
*There is no basis for saying that the cookie does not taste good. The speaker’s certainty is not very high, so “たぶん” is appropriate.
A. きっと
リーさんは日本に10年も住んでN1 も合格しているし、きっと日本語も話せるだろう。
Lee has lived in Japan for ten years and passed the N1, so he can surely speak Japanese.
*There are specific reasons: “Lee has lived in Japan for ten years” and “Lee has passed the N1.” Therefore, the speaker’s certainty is high, so “きっと” is appropriate.
A. たぶん
B：わたし、このあたりに詳しくないんですが…。たぶんあっちだと思います。
I’m not familiar with this area… but I think it’s that way.
*B is not familiar with this area, so their certainty is low. It is a guess that they cannot say clearly, so “たぶん” is appropriate.
A. きっと
きっとあなたならできると信じています。
I believe that you can surely do it.
*This expresses the speaker’s strong belief that “you can do it.” It expresses strong trust and expectation toward the other person, so “きっと” is appropriate.
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